JD(U) may contest more seats than BJP in Bihar 2025 polls. NDA finalizing seat-share deal; Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) to play key role in alliance strategy for Bihar Assembly Elections 2025.
Patna, Bihar – June 7, 2025: In a major political development ahead of the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appears set to finalize a seat-sharing formula that tilts slightly in favour of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U). According to sources close to the talks, the JD(U) may contest 102–103 out of the 243 assembly seats, edging out the BJP, which is likely to field candidates in 101–102 constituencies.
Important Points:
The deal signals a strategic shift in alliance dynamics, with Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP(RV)] also emerging as a more prominent player. This development follows the NDA’s coordinated campaign success during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
🔹 NDA’s Seat Allocation Strategy in Bihar
The NDA in Bihar comprises five parties:
- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
- Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)]
- Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP(RV)]
- Hindustani Awami Morcha (HAM)
- Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM)
During the 2024 general elections, the seat-sharing pattern was as follows: BJP (17), JD(U) (16), LJP(RV) (5), and one seat each for HAM and RLM. However, for the Bihar Assembly polls, sources suggest that the JD(U) will be contesting one or two seats more than the BJP, signaling Nitish Kumar’s enduring influence in state politics.
The remaining 40 assembly seats are expected to be distributed among the smaller allies:
- LJP(RV): 25–28 seats
- HAM: 6–7 seats
- RLM: 4–5 seats
The allocation is being driven by internal BJP survey data collected earlier this year, aimed at determining candidate viability and winnability in each constituency.
🔹 Chirag Paswan’s Political Aspirations Rise
Union Minister Chirag Paswan, leader of LJP(RV), has publicly expressed interest in contesting the 2025 state elections and playing a greater role in Bihar’s development and political realignment.
Notably, Paswan has hinted at contesting from a general category seat, moving away from traditional caste-based politics. His upcoming rally in Ara (Bhojpur district) is being watched closely, as it could mark his formal re-entry into Bihar politics with ambitions that go beyond his community’s vote bank.
A senior BJP leader commented, “Chirag is expanding beyond his core Paswan base. He wants to position himself as a pan-Bihar youth leader.”
🔹 Nitish Kumar’s Legacy Still Dominant in Bihar
While some speculate about Nitish Kumar’s health and political future, the JD(U) leader remains the face of the NDA in Bihar. His party commands over 18% of the state’s vote share, a strong indicator of his enduring relevance.
A senior BJP strategist from Delhi admitted, “As of now, Nitish’s legacy and acceptability are unmatched. Until we find an equally viable face, we must go with him.”
🔹 Why Bihar is Crucial for BJP’s National Strategy
Bihar is the only major Hindi heartland state where the BJP has never ruled independently, making alliances essential. A strong performance here is critical to the party’s plan to consolidate power across India.
The Centre’s recent decision to conduct a caste-based census during the upcoming enumeration is a calculated political move. Both JD(U) and LJP(RV) had long advocated for it, seeing it as a step toward social justice for backward classes — a key electoral plank that could benefit the NDA.
🔹 Internal BJP Dynamics: A Vacuum in State Leadership
Despite being a national powerhouse, the BJP’s Bihar unit lacks a clearly defined second-rung leadership, leaving a political vacuum that leaders like Chirag Paswan are leveraging.
A party insider said, “If the BJP had groomed state leaders, Chirag wouldn’t have gained this much space. He is carefully playing his cards and signaling that he wants to be the next Nitish Kumar.”
Author and political commentator Mrityunjay Sharma added, “Chirag aims to transform the LJP(RV) into a broader-based political force. However, matching JD(U)’s influence won’t be easy in the next 5–10 years.”
🔹 What Lies Ahead
With elections likely in October–November 2025, the final seat-sharing deal is expected to be a critical milestone in the NDA’s campaign preparations. The BJP is also considering early candidate announcements, a tactic that has worked well in states like UP and Gujarat.
Bihar’s fragmented yet vibrant political landscape ensures that no single party can go it alone. The BJP, JD(U), and LJP(RV) must balance aspirations, history, and voter expectations in what promises to be a high-stakes electoral showdown.
